The first Republican presidential debate will air at 9p.m. Thursday on Fox News. The top 10 contenders based on averages of several national polls will participate The other seven will debate earlier in the day. It’s the first hurdle of the 2016 race.

You only have to ask two questions. First, how did Donald Trump manage to lead the Republican field? The second is, how Bernie Sanders managed to challenge Hillary Clinton so successfully?

The first question is easy. People desire hope and success. Donald Trump exudes both. Trump is always talking about some great idea or this fantastic person he met or the wonderful deal he’s working on. Everything is upbeat with Trump, who is a perennial self-promoter. Regardless of whether you think he’s serious, he sees a positive future and speaks his mind. This resonates with people. Even when he says something unpredictable, folks respect the fact he doesn’t back down from his views and can’t be bought or swayed. Other GOP candidates should take note of his unwavering approach. Keep in mind Reagan was initially considered an outsider like Trump and was always positive.

The second question is more complex. It can be summed up in the fact that socialism only looks good when everything else seems hopeless. That’s the way socialism succeeds. When people feel there is little hope for the future, socialism is seductive. It is appealing when a generation believes they will be worse off than their parents and government is the only answer rather than individual spirit.

In a 1944 speech, socialist Norman Thomas is credited with saying the Democratic Party had adopted the socialist platform and America would convert without calling it socialism or communism. For the record, the political evolutionary cycle after capitalism is socialism, followed by communism. It’s why conservatives and many veterans fight socialism so vigorously.

MSNBC commentator Chris Matthews recently asked DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz what was the difference between Democrats and socialists. Now Matthews is a liberal guy. But it was a great question and Schultz couldn’t answer it. She was stumped. Well, maybe she wasn’t stumped. Maybe she can’t admit publicly there is little difference these days and that is exactly how Sanders is gaining on Clinton. The far left wing is now their base.

While Republican candidates are getting ahead with a positive outlook, Democratic candidates are getting ahead by bleak socialist rhetoric. One view is that the American dream is still alive. The other is that we need to adopt failed European models. The two parties are revealing their divergence.

Trump, Jeb Bush and Scott Walker are the clear front-runners. All three have visited North Carolina. Of these front-runners, Trump can say anything he wants and gets attention. This may prevent Bush and Walker from becoming media targets that leaders receive. Bush has the best-organized ground game. He knows what he’s doing.

Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Ben Carson and Mike Huckabee are the next tier. Each has specific constituencies that keep them viable. The rest look good on paper but will poll erratically. Expect John Kasich to be the long shot.

Now this doesn’t mean any of these are the favorites. It just means they have the best chances of winning statistically.

Clinton is the odds-on favorite for the Democratic nomination short of her being criminally charged in any of the numerous scandals in which she is currently involved. But that’s unlikely with a compliant media.

Robeson County leans Republican in national races. As a Democrat county with Republican strength in a toss-up state, Robeson will be among the top 100 of 3,144 counties nationwide to watch. Robeson could swing the state. North Carolina could swing the nation.

Don’t think Robeson doesn’t factor into this national race. With fluid demographics and shifting allegiances, it factors in more than you’d think. Robeson County is not missed among national operatives.

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Phillip Stephens is chairman of the Robeson County Republican Party.