Gov. Roy Cooper will be visiting Robeson within the next couple of months. While it is always an honor to host the sitting governor, understand the real reason he’s coming. It simply validates what we’ve been saying all along about how Robeson will finally garner the attention of Raleigh once becoming a battleground county.
Republican Gov. Pat McCroy won Robeson over Cooper. That’s a huge feat. But before we get off on a tangent that McCrory lost over HB2, let’s be clear.
Certainly, HB2 factored into the race but maybe not like the media wants you to believe. If anything, HB2 may have had the opposite effect, narrowing the margin rather than widening it.
Rural counties like Robeson flipped for McCrory. These were mostly counties led by Christian conservatives who turned out heavily during the Amendment One vote years ago. Robeson topped that list, revealing Christian values trump party lines among local conservatives.
So while HB2 is compelling, the data reveals something much different. Thirteen precincts in North Mecklenburg delivered 15,536 more votes to Cooper in 2016 than in 2012. In other words, 2012 voters who supported McCroy in that region flipped in 2016. Think about that for a minute.
Rural Democratic counties flipped Republican statewide (counties supporting Amendment One and now HB2) while just a few large Republican counties in Charlotte (toll road issues) flipped Democrat.
Those Charlotte precincts where the local toll road issue factored in mattered a lot, accounting for the largest swings in margins that the razor thin 4,000-vote difference between McCroy and Cooper couldn’t withstand.
These weren’t marginal swing counties either. They were solid GOP counties with many voting 66 percent GOP in 2012 but flipped remarkably the other way. Toll road regions had the most dramatic swings and cost Gov. McCroy terribly. HB2 probably helped swing him closer in rural areas. But that’s not the point.
Democrats lost a Senate seat and for the second time a legislative seat to Republicans in Robeson. Trump also won handily here though Democrats still lead in registration for the most part.
We keep saying it doesn’t matter how voters are registered. It matters more how they vote and the trend is voting Republican.
So while this shift is a problem for Democrats, it is a good thing in many ways. When local Democrat leaders tell the governor they need help in Robeson, they are now more likely to be heard to prevent loss of more ground.
Conversely, when GOP leaders call Republicans, they get the same positive response for the same reason as Republicans are gaining ground and now have a track record here. In short, being a swing county has its advantages for both parties.
Democrats must be careful though. They have the most to lose. There is really no such thing as a Conservative Blue Dog Democrat anymore and even local Democrats don’t appreciate the actions of leftists in their party rioting in the streets. These associations with abortion advocates, college professors and flag burning protesters make it hard for mainstream Democrats to be taken seriously with their left wing making a scene.
Democrats learned the wrong things from the Obama wins. They came to believe campaigns should be data-driven and still try to divide the electorate into groups. This micro targeting is one reason why all the polls were wrong last election. They’ve lost recent elections because campaigns really should be message-driven and data-informed.
There’s an old Southern saying that there is no education in the second kick of a mule. If Gov. Cooper denounces Democrats rioting, works with the Legislature on things like HB2 and reaches out to those Christian conservatives, then maybe state Democrats have learned a few things from their last couple of kicks.
If not, here’s something else. Republican Lt. Gov. Dan Forest is very popular. He received more votes than Trump or Cooper last election. That’s the next governor’s race.
