LUMBERTON — While the price of gas has seen a slight increase in the last few days, it’s as cheap as it’s been in weeks.

On May 15, the average price of a gallon of gas across the state stood ast $3.37. Ever since mid-May, prices at the pump have been steadily decreasing.

On Tuesday, the average price around Robeson County stood at $2.34 per gallon. And in Lumberton, the average price was $3.19 per gallon. Again, that’s as low as it’s been in week.

Still, drivers are finding prices in the greater Robeson County that are among the lowest in the country.

For the second straight week, the nation’s average price of gasoline has decreased, falling 10.0 cents from a week ago to $3.40 per gallon today, according to GasBuddy® data compiled from more than 12 million individual price reports covering more than 150,000 gas stations across the country. The national average is down 23.0 cents from a month ago and is 18.2 cents per gallon lower than a year ago. The national average price of diesel has fallen 6.7 cents in the last week and stands at $3.75 per gallon—14 cents lower than one year ago.

“Gas prices are once again on the decline across the U.S., bringing some relief to drivers now paying a little less to fill up their tanks.

The national average for gas prices on Monday stood around $3.44, according to AAA. That’s down about 9 cents from a week ago — marking the largest one-week drop recorded by the motor club so far in 2024. Monday’s average was also more than 19 cents less than it was a month ago and over 14 cents below the level seen this time last year.

Why the recent fall in prices at the pump? Industry analysts point to a blend of lackluster demand and strong supply — as well as relatively mild oil prices worldwide.

Today’s falling gas prices, explained.

There are a few factors contributing to today’s falling gas prices. For starters, fewer people may be hitting the road.

“Demand is just kind of shallow,” AAA spokesperson Andrew Gross said, pointing to trends seen last year and potential lingering impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. “Traditionally — pre-pandemic — after Memorial Day, demand would start to pick up in the summertime. And we just don’t see it anymore.”

Last week, data from the Energy Information Administration showed that U.S. gasoline demand slipped to about 8.94 million barrels a day. That might still sound like a lot — but before the pandemic, consumption could reach closer to the 10 million barrel-a-day range at this time of year, Gross noted.

Beyond pandemic-specific impacts, experts note that high gas prices seen following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and persistent inflation may have led many Americans to modify their driving habits. Other contributing factors could be the increased number of fuel-efficient cars, as well as electric vehicles, on the road today, Gross said.

Some of this is still seasonal. Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, noted that gas prices typically ease in early summer because of refinery capacity. At this time of year, he said, many factors boosting prices in late winter and early spring — particularly refinery maintenance — are no longer present.

“Once refinery maintenance is done, output or utilization of the nation’s refineries goes up — and that contributes to rising supply,” De Haan said. And that stronger supply, paired with weaker consumption, has led to a “bit more noticeable” decline in prices this year. He added that U.S. refinery utilization is at some of its highest levels since the pandemic.

Separately, the Biden administration announced last month that it would be releasing 1 million gasoline barrels, or about 42 million gallons, from a Northeast reserve with an aim of lowering prices at the pump this summer. But De Haan noted that such action has little impact nationally — 42 million gallons equals less than three hours of U.S. daily gas consumption.

“Really, what we’re seeing right now with (declining) gasoline prices … has been driven primarily by seasonal and predictable economics,” he said.

What about oil prices?

Experts also point to cooling oil costs. Prices at the pump are highly dependent on crude oil, which is the main ingredient in gasoline.

West Texas Intermediate crude, the U.S. benchmark, has stayed in the mid $70s a barrel over recent weeks — closing at under $78 a barrel Monday. That’s “not a bad place for it to be,” Gross said, noting that the cost of crude typically needs to go above $80 to put more pressure on pump prices.

Oil prices can be volatile and hard to predict because they’re subject to many global forces. That includes production cuts from OPEC and allied oil producing countries, which have previously contributed to rising energy prices.

OPEC+ recently announced plans to extend three different sets of cuts totaling 5.8 million barrels a day — but the alliance also put a timetable on restoring some production, “which is likely why the price of oil had somewhat of a bearish reaction,” De Haan said.

Could prices go back up?

The future is never promised. But, if there are no major unexpected interruptions, both Gross and De Haan say that prices could keep working their way down.

At this time of year, experts keep a particular eye out for hurricane risks — which can cause significant damage and lead refineries to power down.

“Prices move on fear,” Gross said. In the U.S., he added, concern particularly rises once a hurricane enters the Gulf of Mexico — and even if it doesn’t eventually make landfall, refineries may pull back on operations out of caution. Impacts can also range by region.

But barring the unexpected, analysts like De Haan expect the national average to stay in the range of $3.35 to $3.70 per gallon this summer. Gas prices typically drop even more in the fall, and it’s possible that we could see the national average below $3 in late October or early November, he said.

What states have the lowest gas prices today?

While gas prices nationwide are collectively falling, some states always have cheaper averages than others, due to factors ranging from nearby refinery supply to local fuel requirements.

As of Monday, per AAA data, Mississippi had the lowest average gas price at about $2.94 per gallon — followed by $2.95 Oklahoma and just under $2.97 in Arkansas.

Meanwhile, California, Hawaii and Washington had the highest average prices on Monday — at about $4.93, $4.75 and $4.41 per gallon, respectively.

Oil prices

After a sluggish start to last week on the heels of OPEC+’s meeting, oil has seen somewhat of a rally on hopes of rising fuel demand after the U.S. jobs report last week showed more jobs added than anticipated. In addition, several large banks have raised the prospect of higher crude oil prices going into late summer, helping oil to turn around its early week losses last week. At press time, a barrel of WTI crude was up 90 cents to $76.43 per barrel, still a slight drop from last Monday’s $77.04 per barrel start. Meanwhile, Brent crude was up 85 cents to $80.47 but still trading lower than last Monday’s $81.18 per barrel fetch. However, with an increase in oil inventories in OECD countries, oil prices could find a rally difficult.

Refined products

Last week’s report from the EIA showed a rise across the board in oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories. Oil inventories rose 1.2 million barrels while remaining about 4% below the five-year average, while the SPR rose another 900,000 barrels. Domestic crude production remains unchanged at 13.1 million barrels per day. Gasoline inventories rose by 2.1 million barrels and are nearly 6% above year-ago levels, while distillate inventories jumped 3.2 million barrels and are now almost 11 million barrels ahead of last year. Implied gasoline demand, EIA’s metric for consumption, fell 203,000 bpd to 8.95 million barrels per day. Refinery utilization also jumped to its highest level in months, climbing to 95.4% of capacity.

Fuel demand

According to GasBuddy demand data driven by its Pay with GasBuddy™ fuel card, U.S. retail gasoline demand saw a rise of 2.7% for the week ending June 8 (Sun-Sat). Broken down by PADD region, demand rose 2.5% in PADD 1, rose 2.5% in PADD 2, rose 5.0% in PADD 3, rose 3.2% in PADD 4, and rose 0.9% in PADD 5. GasBuddy models U.S. gasoline demand at 8.884 million barrels per day for the week ending June 8.

Gas price change

The most common U.S. gas price encountered by motorists stood at $3.29 per gallon, down 10 cents from last week, followed by $3.19, $3.39, $2.99, and $3.09 rounding out the top five most common prices.

The median U.S. gas price is $3.28 per gallon, down 11 cents from last week and about 12 cents lower than the national average.

The top 10% of stations in the country average $4.68 per gallon, while the bottom 10% average $2.79 per gallon.

The states with the lowest average prices: Oklahoma ($2.88), Texas ($2.91), Mississippi ($2.91).

The states with the highest average prices: California ($4.86), Hawaii ($4.68), and Washington ($4.34).