A blue wave of winning Democrats seems unlikely in November. Sure, the media are predicting the opposite and their view has some basis in fact.
This blue-wave belief is based on the historical fact that the party occupying the White House generally loses 90 percent of midterms. It is a byproduct of American political culture.
But these losses are generally modest. To control Congress, Democrats would need more than modest. They need a tsunami not seen in 40 years to overcome Republican advantages by flipping more than two dozen House seats. That’s more than usual midterm losses.
In the Senate, over half of the Democrats are up for re-election in regions that Trump won. No political operative would want to defend that map.
Ironically, Democrats probably aren’t going to lose because of Trump’s rising approval rating though. It’s true Trump finally surpassed Obama’s rating and many don’t take into consideration Obama’s rating was with the media cheerleading while Trump’s rating was with the media kicking and screaming. It seems the more keyboard warriors complain, no one is converted and Trump supporters get more energy.
It also isn’t because Trump secured the release of prisoners, ended the Iran nuclear deal, set dates to meet with Kim Jong un, African-American unemployment is at an all-time low, total unemployment is lowest since 2000, tax cuts are hitting and the US embassy is now in Jerusalem as promised by every president. It’s not about any of these promises Trump has delivered.
It’s about an overlooked trend. When a conservative candidate defeats a liberal for the chief executive office the impact is devastating for Democrats. Both Reagan and Thatcher demonstrated the effect. Conservative policies generally are good for business and the economy. Independent voters take notice then move to the Republican party or unaffiliate. The Democrat Party is then left with only hard-core believers.
This shift produces Democrat candidates so far ideologically left that they have trouble appealing to mainstream voters for years afterward. In the U.S., it took from 1984 until 1994 for President Bill Clinton to finally recover for Democrats with his mainstream appeal. When fewer working class Democrats decide not to participate in Democrat primaries, it simply produces far left Democrat candidates who are often controversial to the mainstream.
Dick Morris recently pointed out this phenomenon already occurred this past week in Pennsylvania, where four Bernie Sander’s socialists won Democrat primaries against more moderate Democrats. Even in Robeson, the most controversial Democrat sheriff’s candidate would have most likely won the Democrat primary if sheriff-elect Burnis Wilkins had lost. There are other examples, but you get the point that the trend is current Democrat primaries produce candidates less likely to win a general election.
Republicans are a bit the same, but in reverse. Republican Congressional candidate Mark Harris won because he was probably further right than the incumbent Republican. But he will run strong because of the conservative trend, not to mention the lean of the district.
We also have contested local Republican primaries as evidence of a conservative trend this midterm. Republican Jarrod Lowery will challenge a Democrat incumbent state legislator after winning against his Republican opponent as will Commissioner David Edge, who was also challenged in the primary.
Republican state Sen. Danny Britt and state Rep.Brenden Jones were unopposed in the primary as was Allan Adams, who is the Republican candidate for district attorney. Jack Moody has announced his intent to run for the judiciary on the Republican ticket as well.
There are more unaffiliated voters and more Republicans competing for seats in Robeson than ever before. Democrat hatred for this trend has only served to push more people away from Democrats. In fact, the worst thing that could happen to Republicans right now is for Democrats to start saying nice things about Trump or Republicans.
Then quietly in Parkton, Democrat registration has slipped to 49 percent. The first county precinct to fall under 50 percent Democrat. The tide is turning red.