Michael Whatley is the new North Carolina Republican Party chairman. His election at the recent state convention attended by delegates representing Robeson County marks the beginning of the 2020 election cycle as the leadership at all levels is now in place.
Whatley first worked for Sen. Jesse Helms and was chief of staff for Sen. Elizabeth Dole. He was one of the attorneys representing President Bush in the Florida recount and most recently worked for President Trump’s NC campaign.
Precinct level organization now begins across the state. In Robeson, this means continuing progress toward making Robeson a battleground county rather than a single-party stronghold. That has been accomplished for the most part.
In 2010, Robeson elected the first Republican state legislator and commissioner. Countywide Democratic registration was still above 70 percent at that point. The two seats won by Republicans that year were in Republican leaning precincts with registration near 70 percent. Democratic registration in Robeson leading up to 2010 had been more than 90 percent since the Civil War. A push by Republicans to register unaffiliated voters helped nudge that number during the previous decade.
The 2014 sheriff’s race was the first serious countywide campaign by a Republican candidate since James Sanderson challenged the seat nearly two decades earlier. The race revealed many new conservative friendly precincts and helped drive voters to the polls for Sen. Thom Tillis. The re-election of the 2010 Republicans prior to 2014 also shattered the paradigm that the 2010 Republican wins were an anomaly.
When Robeson flipped for President Trump in 2016, it garnered national attention. Robeson had previously elected Democrats consistently. Robeson not only supported a Republican president that year, but elected the first Republican state senator from the county along with yet another Republican legislator. Sen. Danny Britt proved the 2016 election wasn’t an anomaly either when he was re-elected in 2018. Countywide Democratic registration hovered around 65 percent in 2016.
Today, Robeson Democratic registration has fallen to 61 percent. In 2016, Parkton became the first precinct where Democrats lost a plurality as Democratic registration there fell below 50 percent.
Parkton is now joined by Lumberton No. 1 and Sterlings. Both precincts just dipped under 50 percent Democratic registration. East Howellsville, Lumber Bridge and Wisharts are only one point away from the being under 50 percent Democrat.
Every large precinct that Democrats once solidly held is being impacted, some faster than others. Saddletree, for example, has dropped nearly 10 points in Democratic registration, from 67% to 58% in just two years.
There are still many strong Democratic precincts that are not budging. But they serve to skew the average enough to act as outliers, disguising where many other precincts are headed.
It also isn’t a matter that Democratic registration is falling, but where it is falling. Democratic registration in eight of the 15 largest precincts is below the countywide Democratic registration average of 61 percent. One-third of the county’s voters can be found in those eight.
National Democratic candidates make it hard for conservative Democrats. In order to win a Democratic primary, even a statewide Democrat candidate must now embrace pretty far left positions in order to survive a primary. This leaves moderate Democrats with nowhere to turn but unaffiliated or Republican.
Republicans certainly have extreme stalwarts as well. But, if the Obama years did anything for Republicans, it was to force them to reconcile factions like the Tea Party into a single force rather than allowing hard-liners to pull the party apart. Democrats find themselves in a much more divisive struggle, causing them to bleed voters as evidenced by their registration numbers.
Becoming a battleground county actually helps both Democrats and Republicans. It makes the county’s voice much stronger for both. Politico magazine called Robeson one of nine places in the nation that mattered in 2016. It’s been a long time coming.
