D.G. Martin
                                Contributing columnist

D.G. Martin

Contributing columnist

OPINION SHAPER

“May you live in interesting times.”

Is that a blessing or a curse?

Either way we’re in the middle of some strange, interesting, and memorable times.

The mountain floods and hurricane should by themselves enough to make a list of such times, just as the 1916 floods that left an imprint on the minds of our grandparents.

The ongoing collapse of Boeing, which helped get us to the moon, leaves a vacancy that is being filled by Elon Musk, whose work with U.S. space efforts does not keep him from staying in touch with Russia’s Putin and other potential enemies.

The development and improvement of artificial intelligence persuades us that it will bring efficiencies and other cost savings to business and families. But those savings will be balanced by loss of income to those people who did the jobs taken by AI. For sure, we live in interesting times, the most interesting one is the upcoming U.S. presidential election. How is it going to turn out?

Donald Trump or Kamala Harris?

The pollsters and experts mostly refuse to make an unqualified answer.

For me Karl Rove, the Republican operative and Wall Street Journal columnist gave the best response in his October 23 column.

“If Mr. Trump loses, it could be because he squandered his lead on who would better handle the economy, inflation and the border and compounded the mistake by not offering a compelling second-term agenda. Claiming he’ll make America great again could easily prove insufficient. And Ms. Harris has already closed the gap with him on those key issues. If she loses, it could be this wasn’t enough and what she offered to do about them wasn’t sufficiently powerful.

“If he loses, it will probably be because she convinced voters that she represented change more than he did. If she loses, it may be because she couldn’t name a single thing she would have done differently from President Biden, even after being asked repeatedly.

“If Mr. Trump loses, it could be because voters find him more personally detestable. Ms. Harris leads on character issues such as who has “the mental and physical stamina to carry out the job,” “cares about people like you” and is “honest and trustworthy.” If she loses, it might be because voters decided they now think Mr. Trump did a good job in office and that those personality differences don’t matter.

“If he loses, it could be because he’s chronically undisciplined, burying his message with such rhetorical diversions as discussing Arnold Palmer’s anatomy or such antics as swaying for 39 minutes to his favorite songs at a town hall. If she loses, it might be because voters decided they could tolerate his eccentricities to get the big changes they want him to bring.

“If he loses, it could be because he didn’t support his closing message that she’s “dangerously liberal” with enough hard evidence. If she loses, it might be that her final argument that a second Trump term would be “more unhinged, more unstable and unchecked” doesn’t move voters inured to his behavior. He also appears to be having more fun campaigning now than she does. That makes him look as if he’s winning.

“If he loses, it will almost surely be because he lost too many suburban college-educated women and didn’t flip enough young black and Hispanic males. If she loses, it will likely be because unenthusiastic black, Hispanic and young voters—mainly men—didn’t turn out for the Democrats, while too many working-class whites voted red.

“If he loses, it will be because he didn’t do more to minimize GOP defections and reach outside his hard-core MAGA base. If she loses, it will be because she didn’t convince voters she’d govern from the center.

“If he loses, he probably never figured out how to talk about abortion, creating a giant gender gap. If she loses, it will be because she didn’t find a way to cut into his huge lead among men.

“If he loses, a big reason could be that his ground game started too late, was underfunded and outsourced too much to super PACs. If she loses, it will be because his campaign had a superior get-out-the-vote model based on enthusiastic volunteers.

“If he loses, it will be because Democrats outraised Republicans for the race—nearly $1.6 billion to less than $1 billion. If she loses, it will be because he had sufficient funds to mount a winning campaign and a better team than before.

“We’ve never seen a presidential race with such spectacular twists and turns. The battlefield has narrowed to no more than seven states. The combatants are trading blows constantly. We may not know who won until days after Nov. 5.” Whoever wins, the Trump-Harris battle will be a part of this year’s interesting times.”

D.G. Martin, a retired lawyer, served as UNC-System’s vice president for public affairs and hosted PBS-NC’s North Carolina Bookwatch.